Possibilities of Winning McDonald’s Monopoly

Went out to McDonald to have lunch and found out they are currently having McDonald’s Monopoly Singapore! I’m crazy for it! There are plenty fabulous instant win prizes and 8 even attractive big collect-to-win prizes. So a normal and breakfast Extra Value Meal or regular Extra Value Meal will get you 2 game labels, while upsize to large Extra Value Meal just additional 50 cents will have 4 game labels.

Collect-to-Win Prizes

Ok, I just skip the Instant Win prizes and list out the Collect-to-Win prizes.

1. $50,000 cash (x1 winner)
2. 7D Hawaii Flycruise for 4 pax on Pride of America worth $24k,000 (x1 winner)
3. 100,000 Esso Smiles Points worth up to $4,000 each (x15 winners)
4. Samsung 40" LCD TV by Courts or HP HDX18 Premium Notebook by Courts (x10 winners)
5. 2N Malacca/KL Cruise for 4 on Superstar Virdo worth $2,360 (x15 winners)
6. $400 Jetstar Travel Voucher (x20 winners)
7. $200 ToysRUs Gift Voucher (x100 winners)
8. 32GB Touchscreen MP3 Player worth $420 each (x50 winners)

So far,  I have already collected:

• 3 instant win: Sausage McMuffin, Milkshake, Small Fries
• Bayshore Road (M119) x2
• Farrer Road(M117) x2
• Geyland Road(M111) x3
• Marina Bay(M131) x2
• Holland Road(M128) x1 and Ardmore Park (M130) x 2
• Bishan(M115) x1
• River Valley(M125) x 1
• Raffles Place (M124) x2

Oh my god, I still need one piece to win 50k, one piece to win iPod Touch and one more piece to Hawaii Cruise. But, wait a second, I believe in math and science, let see how big the chances to win the prize.

Beat the Odds

There are 8,670,000 games labels have been printed for the Monopoly game. For Instant Win, there are 1,536,490 McDonald’s meal labels and 631,000 for Partners labels. So after deducting the Instant Win, we will leave only total of 8,670,000 – 1,536,490 – 631,000 = 6,502,510 collect-to-win game labels.

This might sound like you have a great chances to win, almost 3 out of 4 is the collect-to-win label. The basic assumption is only they have evenly printed out collect-to-win labels. The tricky part is I also don’t believe they have printed out evenly.

If I were McDonald, I will only release the key winning labels at the last few weeks of the games. And the key labels will be so rare such that people will just keep buying more and more Extra Value Meal! That time my sales must sky high. Damn, it is like TOTO, too bad I never strike TOTO before; else I’m definitely going to be addicted to it.

Quote from yuxiang.sg, indeed there are some rare pieces.

50 pieces of Joo Chiat Road (m112)
100 pieces of Toa Payoh (m114)
20 pieces of Thomson Road (m118)
15 pieces of Tanjong Rhu (m121)
10 pieces of Shenton Way (m122)
15 pieces of Scotts Road (m127)
1 piece of Orchard Road (m129)
1 piece of Sentosa Cove (m132)

The truth is from my blog searching, plenty people got one or two of the collect-to-win labels and commonly they miss the rare label to claim your prizes. Since there are 212 collect-to-win prizes, so I bet there will be slightly more than 212 rare labels among 6,502,510, just in case some prizes are not claimed. The chance of you getting the collect-to-win prizes is 1 in 30,672.

I guess this mean the probability is higher than TOTO but lower than 4D. But I don’t think the aunties really know what possibility is, so they will still carry on crazily buying McDonald’s EVM as dinner for their family. hehe.

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